GatewayThe NHL’s MVP race this year is as big of a crap shoot as it’s ever been. Since the NHL is on pace to see its lowest scoring leader since 1962, this is more than likely going to be the first time we see the Hart Trophy for the league’s most valuable player awarded to a player who isn’t a forward since Jose Theodore won in 2001.
Even though Sidney Crosby is currently on pace to lead the league in scoring with 85 points, that would be by far the lowest season total his career of any season that wasn’t either crippled by injuries or shortened due to a lockout. Long story short, we’re in the midst of a new dead-puck era, so we’ll have to look a little bit deeper than traditional scoring metrics to determine who the most valuable player in the NHL is this season.
5. P.K. Subban
The last time a defenceman won the Hart Trophy was in 2000 when Chris Pronger put up one of the most dominant seasons for a blue liner in modern day NHL history. Pronger had reasonable offensive stats, 14 goals and 48 assists, but he put up a whopping 9.6 defensive point shares, which is second all-time behind only Larry Robinson’s 1976-77 season with the Montreal Canadiens.
While Subban isn’t going to touch Pronger’s numbers, the fact he’s second in the league in total point shares among skaters is something to write home about. His 6.3 defensive point shares leads the league, while his 5.0 offensive point shares puts him right up there with some of the league’s best forwards. I doubt Subban will actually take home the hardware, but certainly deserves some attention, especially considering the Canadiens are one of the best teams in the league despite their underwhelming roster.
4. Alex Ovechkin
Alex Ovechkin is pretty much a lock to lead the league in goals and win the Rocket Richard Trophy this season. With a couple of weeks to go in the season, he has 49 goals, while his closest competition, Rick Nash and Steven Stamkos, are tied for second with 40. The big knock against Ovechkin is the fact the majority of his goals tend to come on the power play. Of his 49 goals, 22 of them have come with the man advantage, which skews his offensive statistics.
When Ovechkin is on the ice at even strength, his team accounts for 51 per cent of all of the goals scored, which is almost exactly average. When you adjust and look at his goals for percentage in all situations, his team scores 66.3 per cent of the goals when he’s on the ice. This suggests that Ovechkin is a solid player at even strength and his dominance comes from heavy power play minutes, weakening his bid for MVP.
3. Rick Nash
Rick Nash is enjoying arguably the best season of his NHL career. You know who’s enjoying his season even more than he is? The New York Rangers. Nash has 40 goals and 25 assists so for this season, which doesn’t seem overly impressive until you look a little closer. Nash has 31 of his 40 goals at even strength, meaning he isn’t simply the benefactor of steady power play minutes. On top of that, Nash is tied for second in the league in short handed goals with four, meaning when he’s putting up goals on special teams, it’s when his team is a man down. Perhaps the most important statistic that backs up Nash’s MVP claim is his 28.8 goals created and 8.5 offensive point shares.
These stats suggest that Nash has created 28.8 goals by himself for the New York Rangers, so if they had the average player in his place, the team would have scored 28.8 less goals. His 8.5 offensive point shares suggests that if the average player replaced him, the Rangers would have 8.5 less points in the standings. And that’s just based on his offence, he’s also had a strong season on the defensive side of the puck, boasting 2.4 defensive point shares. While Nash doesn’t have the sheer volume of offence that Ovechkin has produced, he has a much stronger goals for percentage at even strength at 62.6 per cent.
2. John Tavares
While John Tavares hasn’t necessarily had a better season than Rick Nash, Alex Ovechkin, or even Sidney Crosby for that matter, he’s going to receive votes for pulling the Islanders out of the basement for the first time in decades. When it’s all said and done, Tavares, who currently sits second in league scoring with 77 points, may lead the league in scoring. Even if that doesn’t happen, he’s easily one of the most valuable players to his team in the league.
The Islanders have enjoyed a breakout season this year due to Tavares’ 30.3 goals created and 8.3 point shares. To show just how valuable Tavares is, he leads all forwards in the NHL in ice time in close situations, meaning whenever a game is tight, he’s on the ice. If he wasn’t playing for the Islanders, they certainly wouldn’t be the team they are today, which makes him stand out in the discussion for an award of this nature.
1. Carey Price
This could certainly be the year that somebody other than a forward wins the Hart Trophy. No defenceman has had a good enough season to warrant it, but Carey Price has. Looking at his basic stats — a league leading 0.937 save percentage and 1.88 goals against average — Price appears to be a lock for the Vezina Trophy for the league’s top goaltender. Looking further suggests that he’s probably a lock for the league’s most valuable player as he leads the league in point shares and goals saved above average by a pretty large margin with 15.8 and 40.58.
For comparison, when Jose Theodore won the Hart in 2001 for the same Canadiens that Price plays for, he had a 0.931 save percentage, a 2.11 goals against average, 45.91 goals saved above average and 17.4 point shares. While Price’s stats may not be quite as good, his play has almost singlehandedly turned a mediocre Canadiens squad into a Stanley Cup contender. Montreal allows 29.4 even strength shots per game and for comparison sake, that’s the exact same amount as the bottom-dwelling Edmonton Oilers. Despite only averaging 2.17 even strength goals for per game, they currently own the best record in the NHL. I wonder why.
