SuppliedIn hindsight, the New Democratic Party’s (NDP) decision to enter into a supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberal government was a strategic miscalculation. By supporting the Liberals, the NDP diluted its distinct political identity and alienated its core base. And now it’s showing in the polls. With the agreement now dissolved, the NDP faces a difficult road ahead to regain its relevance and the trust of its voters.
The NDP and Liberals established the agreement in 2022 to stabilize the minority Liberal government. Per the agreement, the NDP would support the Liberals through confidence votes. In exchange, the Liberals would ensure certain progressive policies passed through the House of Commons (HoC). The NDP entered this arrangement with the expectation of advancing key priorities like health care, dental care, and climate action. At the time, this move was significant for Canadian politics. It aimed to ensure a measure of political stability while pushing for policies aligned with the NDP’s platform.
There were certainly some pros to the agreement. The NDP did manage to achieve certain policy wins and influence government action during the agreement. But the response from Canadians hasn’t been favourable for the NDP. The current criticism of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party often extends to the NDP, as it has supported the Liberal government for two years. The end of the agreement alone isn’t enough to save the NDP from the damage of this political gamble.
Recent polling data paints a grim picture for the NDP. According to a new poll, the party has been losing support, raising concerns that its alliance with the Liberals backfired. During the agreement, many NDP voters felt that their party was compromising its principles by supporting a centre-left government. Criticism from the left intensified as progressive voters perceived the NDP as moving closer to the political centre. Ultimately, the agreement blurred the lines between the two parties, which presents a real problem for the NDP in trying to win over voters.
Ending the agreement has brought new risks for the NDP. The NDP likely hopes to regain lost support by distancing itself from the Liberals. However, some voters might perceive the NDP’s sudden pivot as opportunistic or ineffective. It raises doubts about the party’s consistency and reliability.
Furthermore, with the Conservative Party performing well in the polls, the possibility of an election now poses a significant risk. If an election were to happen soon, the NDP could be leaving its supporters with a Conservative government. That scenario might bring further frustration and blame from the NDP’s base.
The damage of the NDP’s decisions has been done — now the pressing question is whether the NDP can save itself. To rebuild its base, the party must return to its roots. This means advocating for bold, progressive policies that clearly differentiate it from the Liberals. It must also become a stronger opposition force, particularly on issues like economic inequality, environmental protection, and health care.
Re-engaging with disillusioned voters, especially those who felt let down by the party’s perceived concessions, will be crucial. The NDP must make a concerted effort to reconnect with its progressive base and younger voters, which have been vital to the party in the past.
The NDP’s first big policy plan since the end of the agreement is to ban corporations from buying up affordable rental units. After nine years of Trudeau, 370,000 affordable homes were sold to corporations and the price of rent doubled in some cities. With this policy, the NDP are taking a step in the right direction to differentiate itself from the Liberal party.
The challenges ahead are significant. The NDP will need to navigate the upcoming election carefully, whether it forms government or remains part of the opposition. This will require not just a redefined strategy but a renewed commitment to the party’s core values. Whether the NDP can emerge stronger from this misstep remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the road to recovery will be steep and fraught with obstacles.
