Oilers rebuild won’t just happen overnight

Last week marked the beginning of the long and arduous process known as the Oilers rebuilding project. With the exodus of Denis Grebeshkov, Steve Staios, and Lubomir Visnovsky via trade for draft picks and younger (and cheaper) assets, Steve Tambellini put on his hard hat and put out the “team under construction” sign.

These trade deadline deals aren’t going to enhance the Oilers standing this season, as both Aaron Johnson and Ryan Whitney have struggled this season coming off past injuries. These moves, coupled with the Oilers being all but assured of having either the first or second pick in the upcoming NHL Entry Draft after the draft lottery, have fans everywhere hoping for a quick turnaround either next season, or the year after that.

While this could indeed happen, the odds are not stacked in the Oilers' favour. Between still possessing a couple of huge contracts that Tambellini will have to sell his soul to move (see: Shawn Horcoff, Nikolai Khabibulin), a lack of overall young talent in their system, and the fact that there is no generational talent in upcoming drafts, the Oilers are about anywhere between three to five years away from being Western Conference contenders.

Thanks to several moves under former GM Kevin Lowe, including Shawn Horcoff's contract, the Oilers are stuck with a third-line centre making an average of $5.5 million for the next five years who also possesses a No Movement Clause.

Injury prone defenceman Sheldon Souray’s No Trade Clause runs out on July 1, and if Tambellini can simply get out from under the remaining $11 million left on his deal, then he should pull the trigger. However, you can’t blame Lowe for the Khabibulin signing. Not only is he a 37-year- old goaltender with major back issues, but if he retires, his contract which has three years left at $3.75 million, remains on the cap for the duration because he signed it after the age of 35.

Until the Oilers get out from under these contracts they’ll continue to be between the cap and a hard place, making it even harder to sign free agents in a city where that’s already a tough task.

Another lasting mark of the Lowe regime is that the Oilers have no up-and-coming impact players tuning their games at the AHL level. Fans do have Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson coming up front, with Jeff Petry providing potential on the backend, however all of these players could use at least a year in the AHL playing for Oklahoma City next season before coming to Edmonton.

Andrew Cogliano is an example of a rushed player who could have used some time in the minors before coming to the NHL, and the Oilers should be careful to handle those three a little more carefully to ensure a better transition.

The last issue is that, while either Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin will probably turn into star players, they aren't at the same level as Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin in terms of almost single-handedly being able to turn a franchise around.

The Oilers will end up being comparable more to Chicago or Los Angeles who win based on their incredible depth of talent rather than a couple of players that are just that much better than everyone else. So much like the two aforementioned teams, a rebuild project is at the very least three to five years away from producing a winning club.